RIP Twitter (2007-2007)

March 14, 2007 in Uncategorized

This post now resides here.

217 comments

March 15, 2007 at 12:09 am

People have been saying the same about blogging for years now. It’s not hard to do, either. Twitter provides multiple ways to post: text messaging, IM, the web, and a slew of 3rd party tools, such as Twitterrific. Robert Scoble is ecstatic about it, too.

Does it have to have a value? Is it possible for a new web service to be “fun”? Twitter is fun, there’s no doubt about it. It’s fun to post to a large audience, as well as seeing what your friends are up to. There is no “business” aspect because it wasn’t designed to have one. It’s a fun little app. Period.

It’s hard to explain why Twitter is so popular. At first, I was a skeptic. Then I looked around, and most, if not all, my web friends were on it. I started adding people, and they started adding me, too. Before long, I had over 60 friends, and that’s increasing every day.

I don’t know why I twitter. it would be best answered in asking people why they do tumble logs or link logs. It’s to share quick bits of info, easily digestible by anyone who comes along.

Personally, I don’t think Twitter will go anywhere. If it does, it will be when this whole “Web 2.0″ bubble finally bursts.

Twitter on, twitters.

March 15, 2007 at 1:33 am

Juan

1) Where’s the value: you get to see what your friends do without asking; or you can ask for help by posting: “installing a blog, which should it be?”, or you can use it so that people don’t bother you. And I bet there are more, just not particularly interesting to you aparently

2) Too much effort: For you. There is twitter through Messaging, SMS, mobile and web interface. Also, there are a couple of applications in process to make twitter even easier.

3) No they won’t. That completely an opinion. No basis whatsoever.

March 15, 2007 at 1:47 am

Andres

I haven’t given Twitter much thought, but if I had to guess, it’’s demise will be around September, whene people are goint to be busy by the back to school drama.

March 15, 2007 at 1:53 am

Maybe Twitter Does Suck

[...] well at least I’m not the only one that thinks Twitter, well, kind of sucks - see Rip Twitter. For those of you that weren’t bitten by the twitter bug that swept through the world [...]

March 15, 2007 at 2:48 am

matbalez

Aaron: thanks for sharing your thoughts.

You’re right, I suppose, fun is a reason to use an app. With Twitter though, it is simply not a sense of fun I share. And even for those that do derive some fun from it, I would suggest that it’s the type of fun that loses its sheen over time.

Further, I think that Twitter crosses a line of invasiveness (not to mention obsessiveness and strange self-exploitation) that is ultimately bad for us all. I hope, and believe we will, snap ourselves out of it sooner rather than later.

March 15, 2007 at 3:41 am

Twitter Dead in 07? « Tons of Fresh News

[...] Dead in 07? Twitter Dead in 07? This guy gives 3 reasons why “Twitter will flame-out before the end of 2007, in one of the [...]

March 15, 2007 at 4:18 am

Nothing truly innovated about it. Its an old thing with a new twist. AIM Away Messages used to be the in thing. Who had the funniest, what are your friends doing now, etc… and then now all of my friends read the standard ‘I am away from my computer now’. It will lose its appeal guaranteed.

March 15, 2007 at 4:31 am

matbalez

JT - care to venture a guess as to when??

March 15, 2007 at 4:57 am

matbalez

Juan: evidently we disagree. To respond to your points.

1) Seeing what people are up to is not inherently very valuable. It may be fleetingly interesting, but this does not equate to value.

2) I should have said *continuous* effort. The fact that Twitter demands my constant attention is the problem. People can’t easily step away from it for chunks of days at a time - this would undermine the medium, and hence strengthen my argument.

3) Pointing out that the Twitter network is largely centered around key figures that are crucial to its success, is not opinion. Whether these in the Twitterati will stay onboard or not is an open question, granted. But just watch the domino effect that will ensue when the first big dogs start to bail… It will be fun to watch.

Thanks for your critical view.

March 15, 2007 at 5:45 am

David

I can’t put my finger on it, but there is something about Twitter that makes me thing that there is a need that needs to be met. It may not be the tip of an iceberg, but maybe it is the fact that it requires a completely different User Model (i.e. addresses a different situation and condition) that is utterly different from just about everything else out there. It’s not the same as IM (not usually a conversation), it’s not blogging (more ephemeral), not the same as merely SMS. However, it shares features of all of those. This is just a 1.0 of Twitter. It’s raw, rather like IRC was. Look what that became! AOL Chats, Minitel in France, iChat AV…

The fact that it is inconvenient for you today is the same reason few people ever learned all of the IRC commands. But tweak the UI a bit, add some features, do a little social engineering, et voila!

There are technologies and abilities provided by them that change everything. Some of them are obvious and you can see them coming from a mile away. I could tell that Wifi was going to change everything (although I never could have predicted the Wifi Café phenomenon. Other technologies are less clear-cut: TiVo or other PVRs. RSS.

I’m not sure where Twitter is in all of that, but I wouldn’t be so quick to dismiss it. Remember those quotes from people about how every city should have a computer, because they were so useful…

March 15, 2007 at 6:10 am

matbalez

David: I’d be surprised if you are right, but it’s an interesting suggestion. Could Twitter represent an entirely new direction, rather than simply an iteration (or the taking too far, as I’ve been characterizing it) of existing technologies…? Hmm. I suppose time will tell.

But I tend to think that Twitter is a dangerous step towards technology becoming the Master, rather than the other way around. I am very hesitant to embrace anything that demands too much of me, as expect most are. I may have to eat my words though.

March 15, 2007 at 6:35 am

idealist

you say: “No deep content, nothing to learn, no reason to keep coming back to the trough, other than the thrill/obsession of pre-adolescent voyeurism”

I say: why not?

even if you are a “busy professional” and you are no longer a thrill/obsessed pre-adolescent, there will be lots of them always. (I hope)

March 15, 2007 at 9:48 am

rdas7

I couldn’t agree more that twitter is overhyped. Posting minute-by-minute status of “What I’m doing now” is fun for about 10mins. but if you do anything other than surf digg all day, more than likely you don’t want everyone to know what you are doing - more to the point, you don’t want them to *expect* to know what you are doing at all times.

I don’t want my clients logging in to see that I’m “Thinking about snow…”, or “Watching 300 for the 300th time…”.

Your points are clear and concise as to why Twitter is doomed to the “so 2006″ category. On the other hand, do you think that the market Twitter legitimately and undeniably caters to will be better served once telephony/IM/email become merged? Once your cellphone *is* your instant messenger client, your “away status” will obviate a dedicated service like Twitter.

March 15, 2007 at 9:49 am

Sean at Prompt

I tried Twitter and it didn’t really work for me. But I can see why people use it. It’s like blogging, only much easier. You don’t use it continuously, any more than you write your blog at all hours. You make what you consider to be significant posts.

That said, it is massively overhyped. Whether it folds or not depends on what the exit strategy is for the owners - I can see something like this being acquired by one of the search engine giants (because of the valuable profiling information it reveals for advertising purposes) or one of the big publishers, because of the access it might give to a young demographic that’s otherwise hard to reach (the reasoning behind News Corp’s acquisition of MySpace).

March 15, 2007 at 9:55 am

Jimmy S » Blog Archive » Twitter Dead in 07?

[...] in irrational exuberance we ’ve seen since the turn of the millennium.” What do you think?read more | digg [...]

March 15, 2007 at 10:22 am

mik

hi, im a web developer and i focus especially on social web 2.0 apps… i’ve used twitter some time ago.i’ve installed it, downloaded all the OSX tools to manage it, sent some messages and trashed all together in less than 30minutes.
No time to waste in a non-sense sistem.
It’s w/o the consistency, it’s unusefull.
There are a lot of systems created to trace people activities and publish them.. This is one of the worse, because is too much ACTIVE for the user..
we need PASSIVE apps to trace activities.. imho… (ah, and i’m planning one of these )
bye

March 15, 2007 at 10:36 am

Sócrates

I find twitter useful to easily contact a large number of peopl (which are registred there), especially if they are using the free SMSing option.

Twitter is like a theory, it is created and now people will find different uses for it and me and some of my friends already have (really good to make plans for a good night at the bar or alert people of professional meetings) and we are not some pre-adolescent junkies, some of them are already working on the IT business, I am currently finishing my masters.

March 15, 2007 at 10:40 am

MAF

Regardless of whether or not Twitter remains or dies out, I believe Twitter concepts will remain and evolve.

Call waiting, IM and 24-hour/day cell phone availability have been or are too evasive to my productivity and life style. Why, because I am of the pre-computer generation where one sat down and accomplished some task for a six-hour block without interruption. But, younger generations and the future are clearly different.

Now, I can think of quite a few personal and business applications of value given real-time information in my domain of expertise from a semi-private network of Twitter’ers.

March 15, 2007 at 10:45 am

TRDaggett

It ain’t over ’till the fat lady Twitters “I’m about to sing…” for the last time!

March 15, 2007 at 11:02 am

Corey Clayton

Nice article.
I don’t think Twitter will ever die. I think it’s more of an app looking for a home and its purpose in digital life. And with its multiple uses, I can see it eventually being morphed for many purposes.

Check out the piece I wrote about adapting Twitter for a newspaper staff: http://harddrivelife.com/2007/03/12/twitterinnews/

So far, so good.

March 15, 2007 at 11:35 am

Keith Peters

1. You could say that about most of the internet. YouTube, Second Life, MySpace, porn…. value is in the eye of the user.

2. You lost me on this one. Too much effort? You type in a few words and hit enter. Reading this single blog post and replying took more effort than I will expend on twitter all day.

3. As others have said, and opinion, a prediction. Of course, all things have a life cycle, and twitter itself may be a flash in the pan. But I think it did usher in a new breed of web-based communication and interaction that will be with us for a long while.

I can understand that you aren’t into twitter, some people love it, some don’t get it at all, which is cool. But why the “disdain” and seemingly seething hatred. It seems like you aren’t only predicting it will die, but that you are praying for its death. Lighten up dude!

March 15, 2007 at 11:41 am

Chris Brogan...

With enough friends added to the stream (almost an overload), Twitter often acts for me as a real-time “suggest” feature. I don’t give it constant attention, but instead use it as a stream product. I dip into the stream, take a look around, and then do what I think needs doing. I then go back to my life. It’s the gestalt, not the standalone that I’m seeing as the value.

March 15, 2007 at 11:55 am

Adri

Do you have some sort of vested interest in twitter dying? Because otherwise, just live and let live man. I enjoy twitter, and I’ve found it’s an incredible communication tool. I don’t see it dying out at all - in fact, if and once the concept catches on, it’ll be the new blog/email.

March 15, 2007 at 11:58 am

Rob Usdin

Blogged about it here: http://www.usdin.net/blog/2007/03/twitter.html

Excerpt that I think is especially relevant:

>>Twitter may be a way to have that element of basic human contact that we lose in the virtual world - the kind of contact people in offices get - bumping into someone in the hall and asking them what they had for lunch, telling them you just came back from your kid’s swimming party, and such… This is more relevant for those who work in the virtual world of the internet because in some way - it replaces that office thing. I think a lot of people who work from home offices are on Twitter because of this. It allows you to virtually “bump into” anyone who is on Twitter that you choose to follow. That means you could bump into your best friend even if they don’t work in the same place…

March 15, 2007 at 12:02 pm

RIP Twitter (2007-2007) at Maszman Speaks!

[...] And now…in the spirit of fairness…the other side of the Twitter story. [...]

March 15, 2007 at 12:10 pm

RickMahn.com » Blog Archive » RIP Twitter - A Rebuttal

[...] while reading Twitter this morning, I ran across a link from Steve Rubel to this blog post that is predicting the demise of Twitter. Whether this will turn out to be true or not, I [...]

March 15, 2007 at 12:29 pm

Bill Janis

This could not be MORE correct. “pre-adolescent voyeurism” is perfect. But there is one use for Twitter. It’s a signpost that shows us who among us have too much time on there hands, and also who is an early adapter just to be seen as an early adapter, with no thought to what they are adapting. This side of the tech scene has become the record business of the 1980’s. Bands would blow up quickly and then flame out faster due to this same dynamic of adaption for the sake of adaption.

I’m looking for the alternative universe version of Twitter. When one of my friends thinks of contacting me when I’m busy, they receive a message saying not to.

March 15, 2007 at 12:32 pm

Not everyone likes you at Holy Shmoly!

[...] the course of a few months they’ve gone from being a darling of the blogging community to the nemesis of all things good and [...]

March 15, 2007 at 12:33 pm

pixolut

The fundamental difference between a twit and a blog post is the volume and depth of content. Some blog posts should be twits - whereas there is a limit imposed by the technology where a long twit could never be equivalent ot a blog post.

Another key element of blogging is relevance of information. I don’t see Google placing a vast weight on twitter search results simply because the resulting content would generally be irrelevant - whereas its quite the opposite with blogs.

Whilst I would not like to predict nor hasten its demise I would also tend to stay the hell away from the kool-aid. Its certainly nice to have a web based history of text messages - and be able to have a little social fabric of friends to hold it together - but a revolution it is not.

March 15, 2007 at 12:46 pm

Gozkino » Blog Archive » RIP twitter? Tarot cards 2.0

[...] Matt Balez makes a small number of extremely critical and cynical points against twitter. [...]

March 15, 2007 at 12:47 pm

Nathan

I think it is interesting that you say there is no value in what is posted on twitter. The thoughts and interests of those I care about are very valuable to me. I use twitter to post infrequently (2-3x a day) because I care about the people on my list and I also like to keep a mental record of what I was doing.

I do agree that it will fade away, eventually. If everyone on my list left, I probably would write my own application to keep track of my away status for my site for my own personal use (I am currently integrating twitter and other web apps to create a timeline of sorts).

It would be interesting if all of your close friends were using twitter, what your opinion would be. Would you use the service if your peers (the ones whose opinions you respect) did and wanted you to be a part of the fun?

March 15, 2007 at 12:54 pm

Andrew Mager

Good article. I am already starting to get addicted to Twitter, but I do see some negatives now. I don’t like how my cell phone will have 10 or 15 new messages in the morning.

The beauty of Twitter though, is that you can respond to it whenever you want. You say there is “nothing to learn” in your first point, but there is so much to learn. The indirect communication that you receive in blips throughout the day is very informative, and almost invasive.

Even though it’s addicting, I hope Twitter doesn’t die yet. Some of the messages I receive crack em up

March 15, 2007 at 1:20 pm

Mark

What is twitter?

March 15, 2007 at 1:23 pm

Oblivion

November 14, 2007.

March 15, 2007 at 1:24 pm

Joseph Arruda

I have to say, I am amazed it has achieved the level of attention it has. Your pithy three-point list (and the commentary from Pixolut) pretty much sums up my thoughts on it, save that at best it could be used as some kind of way to power “phone spam 2.0″ .

March 15, 2007 at 1:49 pm

Chris

Agreed! Agreed! Agreed!

Twitter is Web 2.0 junk:

http://www.chrisknudsen.biz/295/twitter-is-web-20-junk/

March 15, 2007 at 2:04 pm

I just had a look at Twitter a few days ago. What a useless piece of nothing.
It is exactly the same as those late-night TV things when the programming is over and they just put up a ‘chatroom’ which looks precisely like Twitter does. You can send in an SMS, it will be moderated and then displayed on the TV.

Amazingly, people actually use this instead of sending messages to each other instead. I can see the charm in getting your lame greetings displayed on national TV (even if it’s at 3am when no sane person is watching), but to have your stuff displayed on the internet? Anyone can do that.

March 15, 2007 at 2:08 pm

romney dot com

*sigh* twitter wasn’t born in 2007. lame.

March 15, 2007 at 2:12 pm

Nicolaos Lemieux

http://www.google.com/search?client=safari&rls=en&q=%22lifehack.org%22+%22twitter%22&ie=UTF-8&oe=UTF-8

Just to the comment about how there was no good use for twitter.

I do not know about my stance on when it will die, but it may not; look at myspace.

March 15, 2007 at 2:18 pm

Twitter: R.I.P.

[...] de lado (lo que cualquiera podrá comprobar pasándose por mi perfil), y hoy me encuentro con este post que refleja a la perfección lo que [...]

March 15, 2007 at 2:23 pm

Joel M

I predict November 15th, 2007, for a Twitter flameout. I also agree with rdas7 and would guess that sometime in the next two to three years we’ll see cell-phone away messages of some sort, as it becomes your communication platform and not just your cell phone.

March 15, 2007 at 2:30 pm

John Griffiths

Think you’re diving off the deep end here.

What it is, is a good example of a simple communication tool which anyone can setup and use with relative ease.

It’s like a micro-blog or think-pad where you can post thoughts or feelings that are either too short for your blog or just don’t fit there.

You’re friends can see what you’re thinking and you can too vice versa.

It may die as you say, because the life of the product is all based down to the users using it, but as a proof-of-concept you’ve got to hand it to the guys.

March 15, 2007 at 2:34 pm

Oyvind Solstad

Yeah sure. Twitter will die. Just as text messages, mobile phones, blogs, the internet…

Don’t you realize: People love to chat and communicate? This is just another way of doing that. It doesn’t save the world or un-melt the polar caps. But it’s an interesting way of following what people you like do. No more, no less.

March 15, 2007 at 2:35 pm

TechTraction » Blog Archive » Twitter: The Latest Web 2.0 Craze You Can Ignore

[...] Twitter fans but Twitter, as Mat Balez noted in recent blog post “RIP Twitter (2007 - 2007)“, is on track to an early grave. For the rest of you, don’t twit that you’re not [...]

March 15, 2007 at 2:37 pm

Jeremy Toeman

If I were a Twitter user, my entry would be: Standing up and applauding the best darn blog post I’ve read all week. WELL DONE.

March 15, 2007 at 2:50 pm

Jerry Sams

“No deep content, nothing to learn, no reason to keep coming back to the trough, other than the thrill/obsession of pre-adolescent voyeurism - which is simply not reason enough for busy professionals. ”

I guess you haven’t been paying attention to TV for the last 20 years or so, and the last month of Anna Nicole Smith on CNN, but “pre adolescent voyeurism” is exactly why busy professionals will remain engaged.

March 15, 2007 at 3:09 pm

blackrimglasses.com » Blog Archive » RIP Twitter (2007-2007) « web1979

[...] RIP Twitter (2007-2007) « web1979: I got hit with a 60 dollars SMS bill last month because I was enamored with tracking and contributing to my friends talk about their dietary and travel habits. I turned off SMS alerts and now… I don’t use Twitter much. I like it, in theory, and maybe I’ll start again, but I don’t know… my life isn’t that interesting and a moblog is more interesting than text. You can skip to the end and leave a response. Pinging is currently not allowed. [...]

March 15, 2007 at 3:09 pm

Duncan

I would love to see the end of the inane love affair that many bloggers seem to have with Twitter. It doesn’t do anything very special no matter how they try to justify it, Facebook has been offering status updates in a much more usable fashion for ages, and it can be accessed from your mobile as well. It fulfills the stupid demand for voyeurism that so many people seem to crave but actually has enough to keep the user coming back and keep them involved.

I’m sick of people going on about Twitter as if its a massive revolution, it doesn’t do that much, its a piece of code that could have been knocked up in a couple of days at most.

March 15, 2007 at 3:15 pm

Beware the pitfalls of Twitter « Shawn Christopher

[...] posted an article on some of the reasons Twitter is gonna die in 2007. They are the most obvious reasons and having said that, I can’t understand why someone would [...]

March 15, 2007 at 3:22 pm

w4 network - technology, gadgets, web 2.0, smartphones, wordpress, mobile, blogs, news, money & affiliates » Blog Archive » Blogger Mat from web1979 says Twitter will die in 07

[...] RIP Twitter (2007-2007) « web1979 [...]

March 15, 2007 at 3:27 pm

Dave Donohue

The thing I don’t understand about Twitter is how it provides anything beyond what an IM client status window does. If I post “leaving for lunch now” to Twitter, and then Twitter IMs that to my friends, why is this not redundant with my IM status of “out to lunch”?

And how on earth could 160 characters replace a thoughtful blog post of several paragraphs?

I may be missing the point, but Twitter’s appeal has been lost on me.

March 15, 2007 at 3:32 pm

rxbbx

Just RIP Twitter and all those people who are trying to get it up in rankings for their own sake…

Its just another buzz.. and people try to make business of it.. like with most of the shit.. (like mybloglog.. first they are getting their traffic, then they are gone).. Everyone is playing those networks.. sad but true..

March 15, 2007 at 3:32 pm

David

Don’t know about adolescents - I’m way beyond those years - but Twitter to me is about much more than voyeurism. I suspect, as do others here, that Twitter will morph according to its affordances and the imaginative ways in which users exploit those.

I’ve noticed that quite a few of the objections people have to Twitter are simply fixable by setting the appropriate Twitter function. For example, you can set when you get txt messages, or you can turn that function off altogether. So you don’t have to wake up to a pile of messages on your mobile.

The current major threat to Twitter, with its rapid rates of adoption, seems to be the robustness of its servers. IM sometimes appears to be flaky and yesterday Twitter was unavailable for a while.

March 15, 2007 at 3:38 pm

Mo Diddy

Isn’t http://www.radar.net already two steps ahead of Twitter with a nicer site, more features, and an actual business model?

March 15, 2007 at 3:41 pm

Exra Character

Twitter will peak at 8:37 pm on October 12, 2007. It will linger on until 9 am January 23, 2009. In that time it will change ownership twice losing money for everyone who invested in it.

I have spoken.

March 15, 2007 at 3:42 pm

rxbbx

@David
Why use Twitter? Because everyone says to use it.. It’s nice but people are jumping on board and going for the links.. They say its cool.. i think its just rubbish… everyone can start a Twitter sort of site.. Its just bullshit..

Have you ever used it? Its ok.. but with what goal? People Buzz things.. if they see something is growing, they want to have more.. More people are saying its perfect.. the next thing.. for their own sake… if you know what I mean.. Just ban Twitter.. it is something for 15 - 25 years people.. for little kids

March 15, 2007 at 3:44 pm

Ged

I think anyone who has not seen the benefits of Twitter and say that it will “die” soon are victims of not having many friends in the service. Sure, if you are sending tweets to the “masses” or to one or two people, from your point of view its pointless. No argument there, I would think the same thing.

Once you start to have a collection of friends and peers who genuinely care about what you are doing at any given moment, then the service takes on a whole new dimension and its pluses become immediately evident.

Twitter is not even out of the gate yet, and I dare say has not even approached its peak of popularity. Predicting its demise now is premature at best.

March 15, 2007 at 3:46 pm

rxbbx

Like Micropersuasion.. Call me on my Twitter.. :).. Go for it Web1979.. nice article..

March 15, 2007 at 3:47 pm

rxbbx

@Ged
Friends are friends.. no collected ones..? like always.. Most people who talk about Twitter can’t have friends..

March 15, 2007 at 3:49 pm

rxbbx

You have friends if you have a social life…. and real friends

March 15, 2007 at 3:56 pm

Ged

rxbbx, are you suggesting that friends on Twitter are not (or cannot) be “real” friends? I am currently comunicating with at least 15 close friends via Twitter every single day. Some are close by, others are in different parts of the country, and a few are in different parts of the world. How does that make me have any less of a social life?

Many of the other people in my Twitter friend list are peers from other websites or companies that I have known for many years. I send them small chunks of info about what I’m doing, and they do the same back. I feel connected and can reach out immediately to a small group of them when I need something or have a question. Try not to belittle the Twitter experience without seeing it from every side.

March 15, 2007 at 3:57 pm

gordon

i have a twitter account but i don’t really know what twitter does. what is twittter for? why should i go back to twitter?

those are valued questions that need to be answered.

March 15, 2007 at 4:04 pm

rxbbx

@Ged
This is normal.. but i mean the big guys.. they are just playing twitter and they fuck it up.. like with all networks..

If you have a good network.. its always good.. you can use twitter.. all sort of things.. you have a point with that.

But I don’t like it when something is “social” and none social people are screwing it.. like all things.. all fake normally. “Use twitter is the best” for their own sake.. like all networks.. you have simply friends or you arrange them.. I like the people who are honest..

March 15, 2007 at 4:07 pm

Zen Curmudgeon

After a month of the sort of digital narcissism that most Twitter communiques harbor I deleted my account. I was exhausted from reading bits of trivial information about people I didn’t find particularly interesting.

March 15, 2007 at 4:15 pm

DaveBarousse.com » Is Twitter Really Fun Or Worthless

[...] Twitter sounds like it would be fun for about 10 minutes, then would annoy the hell out of me. I also hate the name. And I’m not the only one saying this stuff. [...]

March 15, 2007 at 4:22 pm

jer

I’m with you.

Felt like an “emperor has no clothes” scenario when I first started hearing about it. Do you really want to know all of this info *all the time*? No way…I’m too busy doing real work.

I say August 14th. They’ll hold on, thanks to momentum, for a while, but the summer will bury them when people start taking time off.

March 15, 2007 at 4:26 pm

Melikoth

Heres what I don’t get. I’ve been hearing about Twitter for a while now, but almost every article I read never says anything about what it actually did. The first comment on this blog managed to do that, and now I know that I’ve heard of this sort of thing long before Twitter.

I see it as a brand name, because there are generics on the market too.

March 15, 2007 at 4:28 pm

Ged

“I was exhausted from reading bits of trivial information about people I didn’t find particularly interesting.”

Again, because of no friends on Twitter. Zen just made my points quite well. I’m willing to bet that if you had at least 5 people on Twitter that you actually knew or were friends in real life with, you wouldn’t have deleted it. Just my ¢2.

March 15, 2007 at 5:06 pm

sarahpolicelady

Until I came here I didn’t know what Twitter was. I’ve only just found out about blogging (and I love it). I’ve had a look at it and my views are: 1. It does look fun…but that’s all 2. When you look at all the updates it makes your head hurt, not least because half of them are in Spanish or Japanese 3. I don’t think I’ll be bothering….I’d get into an awful lot of trouble if I told the world what I was doing all day!

March 15, 2007 at 5:07 pm

JohnnyB.

so…what’s this Twitter everyone’s talking about?

really - i’ve never heard of it. I really didn’t think i lived under a log, but it would seem i just might after all…

March 15, 2007 at 5:13 pm

sniv

July 1, 2007.

March 15, 2007 at 5:51 pm

dmunsie

Ugh — while I can see the value of Twitter if you are trying to keep up on your friends, I fail to see the value of putting your own info up. I mean, I understand why you might want to share info on a blog — but up to the minute status of what I’m doing?

What concerns me more is how this technology could be abused — how soon before business require this or something similar for their employees? And if you don’t update it every 20 minutes or so, you get written up?

Sometimes it’s good to be disconnected from the world for a bit — it actually gives your mind a chance to decompress and rest a bit.

March 15, 2007 at 6:05 pm

Carol

The b/f got me to sign up yesterday. I was on it for 10 seconds and I was bored. I can’t be bothered to update all the time.
Twitter won’t last til the summer.

March 15, 2007 at 6:08 pm

Twitter sidebar widget on Wordpress -maybe? « Davor’s Technology Blog

[...] An interesting opinion about Twitter. [...]

March 15, 2007 at 6:18 pm

Twitter won't make it « Cherif’s Blog

[...] Mat Balez has a very interesting post on the [...]

March 15, 2007 at 6:29 pm

JoeDuck

the thrill/obsession of pre-adolescent voyeurism

But, ummmm, nobody EVER went broke underestimating the thrill/obsession of pre-adolescent voyeurism.

March 15, 2007 at 6:32 pm

Ed Darrell

What the heck is “twitter?”

March 15, 2007 at 6:41 pm

Twitter… another day at Virtual Generations

[...] this one Is Twitter toast? and RIP Twitter (2007 -2007) they think Twitter won’t make it to the end of the year. Personally I don’t know, for [...]

March 15, 2007 at 6:43 pm

Pat

A public web app with a hype cycle? I’m shocked! Shocked to find hype on the internets.

Although the tone is very much “twitter kicked my puppy, stole my girlfriend and my CD of Ritual de lo Habitual by Jane’s Addiction” and that I don’t get.

March 15, 2007 at 7:04 pm

Twit(ter). Seriously? Perfect. : Circle The Logic

[...] Mat Balez thinks Twitter faces a swift demise. I’m not so sure, but it would certainly provide me with hope for the future of the world if it were so. [...]

March 15, 2007 at 7:09 pm

Jeff Ventura

I like your article and you make good points. I think it’s a bit early to tell what the future holds for Twitter, but I suspect in will live on as-is, die or evolve into something useful. I don’t know if it can just sit in this strange place it is now and just be a novelty to everyone.

Well, it can, but it won’t last. Twitter needs to find some real utility *for the masses*, not just the hardcore blogger web2.0 crowd.

Thanks for a good post.

Jeff Ventura
Graceful Flavor

March 15, 2007 at 7:23 pm

Scott Ahten

01. Where’s the Value?

Twitter is a hybrid between IM and a blog. As such it’s better suited for broadcasting informal content to a wide audience.

For example, you probably wouldn’t post what you had for breakfast on your blog, nor would you go to the trouble to IM your selection to all of your friends. However, your choice of BooBery over CountChocula is perfect match for Twitter.

That’s not to say that you can’t use Twitter for more important information, but you’d usually present in-depth asynchronous information via a blog posts and conduct realtime conversations over IM.

02. Too Much Effort People are lazy.

Unlike IM and Blogs, users do not expect a response from a Twitter post. Continuing my example above, your friends may be inspired to post what they had for breakfast, or they may not. You’re free to post without the expectation of comments or a realtime discussion and subscribers can read without feeling the need to reply. Twitter makes it easy for even lazy people to get involved.

As for ease of use, have you seen Twitterrific?

http://iconfactory.com/software/twitterrific

03. Key Users Will Bail.

I think you’re underestimating the power of having a large number of subscribers. Key users might bail, but they may think twice if they know they have a huge audience subscribed to their twitter stream.

It’s quite possible they’ll start using Twitter as an alternate channel for content. Those who want to know more “behind the scenes” information will remain subscribed. Those who do not, wont.

Also, key users are more likely to give out their twitter stream where they wouldn’t dream of giving out their IM. The freedom to post IM like content without concern of a reply is likely to be very appealing to both key users and those who follow them.

March 15, 2007 at 7:41 pm

M@goo Blog » Twitter: �Condenado a morir?

[...] Lean este post. Altamente recomendado. Incluso por las respuestas en los comments [...]

March 15, 2007 at 7:44 pm

Keine Panik! » Der Twitter-Hype

[...] Mat dagegen prognostiziert, dass Twitter noch 2007 eingehen wird. [...]

March 15, 2007 at 8:09 pm

David Kornahrens

Key users will bail?

What exactly is a key user? Are these the one’s that post 84 comments to a post that doesn’t signify a response what-so-ever?

Here… now you have 85 — Goodluck.

March 15, 2007 at 8:12 pm

matbalez

David: Key users, in this context, are those anchors that have a large following and make the Twitter community a busy, bustling place. As they burn out on Twitter, so too will their community.

March 15, 2007 at 8:17 pm

matbalez

Scott: That’s a thoughtful counter analysis.

But the fact that the first example you cite as the perfect match for Twitter is one’s choice of morning cereal is exactly the point I’m making. The world doesn’t care about your choice of morning cereal, and that’s why the medium is doomed. Conversely, there is at least some rich content & discussion occurring in the bogosphere, which is why it will ultimately succeed.

March 15, 2007 at 8:18 pm

matbalez

JoeDuck: TRUE ENOUGH! Point taken.

March 15, 2007 at 9:11 pm

Deep Jive Interests » Twitter: Will It Get Crushed By Its Own Banality?

[...] like Dave Winer and one fellow Canadian blogger, I’m not entirely sold on it. Sure there are some posts floating around the web about [...]

March 15, 2007 at 9:21 pm

Chad Sakonchick

I agree completely. I drank the Kool Aid at SXSW Interactive because of peer pressure. Now that it’s over, I continuously get twitters from those I’ve befriended. Not only that, Twitter is auto adding people to my friends and I’m getting massive amount of twitters from strangers. I predict it will be a major social event where the system will eat itself.

New Years Eve 2007 at 11:45pm

March 15, 2007 at 9:34 pm

Andy

August 26

March 15, 2007 at 9:47 pm

Janine White

I agree Twitter won’t last.

http://jiwhite.blogspot.com/2007/03/twitter.html

March 15, 2007 at 10:24 pm

Bwana

Text will never die. Remember that.

March 15, 2007 at 10:44 pm

Jonny

“Where’s the value: you get to see what your friends do without asking…”

I had no idea an impersonal alternative to “what’s up?” was in such high demand. Is it crazy of me to actually enjoy talking to my friends?

I haven’t read it, but can see where your post about social repercussions might have gone.

March 15, 2007 at 10:47 pm

Scott Ahten

“The world doesn’t care about your choice of morning cereal, and that’s why the medium is doomed.”

So IM is doomed as well? After all, IM delivers informal content of a very narrow interest to a very narrow audience. Twitter simply expands that audience to a wider group in a one-directional manner.

As such, content in someone’s Twitter stream is likely to be of wider interest than an IM, yet more narrow interest than a blog post. It’s also likely to be used more frequently than a blog since the format is very informal.

March 15, 2007 at 10:52 pm

Web Worker Daily » Blog Archive Eight Ways Twitter is Useful Professionally «

[...] Ways Twitter is Useful Professionally Mat Balez is predicting the demise of Twitter in 2007. He’s not the only one who doesn’t see the value in it: many people wonder just [...]

March 15, 2007 at 10:53 pm

matbalez

Scott: Actually, over IM I can have a fluid, meaningful conversation with another person, so it has a valid (and valuable) use case.

Let’s talk again in six months. You might very well rub my nose in it. But then again, sanity might win out.

March 15, 2007 at 11:20 pm

superdude

I’ll tell ya who would like to know what _you_ are doing at _all_times_…
Advertisers/marketing folk. There could be a lot of money in that
business. Really is there much more to say than that?

If it is not actually logged or blogged then perhaps that is not an issue
but really… Privacy -2.0?

March 15, 2007 at 11:24 pm

matbalez

Interesting suggestion superdude, but I suspect Twitter will peter out before the advertisers get their dirty hands all over it. If/when they do it will simply be more fuel on the fire of Twitter abandonment.

March 15, 2007 at 11:34 pm

superdude

Well sir you might have a point there however, never
underestimate the power of marketing. Real time
marketing statistics are probably the holy grail
of marketing wouldn’t you say? That is if
they persist, endure, or survive your expectations..

March 15, 2007 at 11:43 pm

Notes from the Field : Smoking ban gotcha down?

[...] the voltage kills them. Either way, now it’s an accessory just like your ipod and razr! Can you connect it to twitter? Share this post: Email it! | bookmark it! | digg it! | reddit! Posted: Thursday, March 15, 2007 [...]

March 15, 2007 at 11:58 pm

Top Posts « WordPress.com

[...] RIP Twitter (2007-2007) I make no bones about my disdain for Twitter. I’ve commented far and wide about the inanity and potential danger […] [...]

March 16, 2007 at 12:19 am

Definition von twitter » Text & Blog � Das Weblog von Markus Trapp.

[...] Zitat habe ich gefunden �ber einen genialen Kommentar von bwana.org im Blogposting �RIP Twitter (2007-2007)�: Text will never die. Remember [...]

March 16, 2007 at 12:28 am

matbalez

Bwana: “Text will never die.”

What you say is rather striking, and probably full of truth. However, I don’t quite grasp its applicability to Twitter here. Twitter is a communication medium, whose value is largely dictated by the value of the content it carries. In this case, the “text” is largely rubbish, and while it may never die (preserved in perpetuity in servers somewhere) this in no way is a statement of the life expectancy of the medium itself.

March 16, 2007 at 12:30 am

Productivity links for March 15th

[...] RIP Twitter (2007-2007) « web1979 - Predicting Twitter’s imminent death. I have to say, I kind of agree more than disagree. [...]

March 16, 2007 at 12:50 am

James

Yeah, Twitter is pretty pointless.

This sort of thing *does* work in social networks like Facebook, though. Mainly because the status isn’t the point, and you’re probably logging on for other reasons.

March 16, 2007 at 1:23 am

Kinky Ink Tattoos

Yaaaaaaaaawn

March 16, 2007 at 1:46 am

Live Television for the Web

I think twitter is pointless, but so is facebook and myspace. Twitter serves something like tv, it shows a live view of people’s lives as it happens.

March 16, 2007 at 1:51 am

red01

if myspace can grow into one of the most popular sites on the net with a total lack of usability and one of the most crappy user experiences i have ever come across… twitter can most probably can survive….

March 16, 2007 at 2:27 am

Day of the dead Web 2.0 » TechAddress

[...] a Web 2.0 death frenzy today. One blogger pronounces the impending death of Twitter (to be precise: "imminent supernova-like implosion"). The Atlantic [...]

March 16, 2007 at 2:39 am

bonaldi

Everyone I know who uses twitter uses it in a small social circle. The loss of “key” people would be completely irrelevant — we only track each other. Twitter’s strength is not it one-to-anonymous, like blogs, but one-to-one’s-mates. ie:

What are you doing now?
Looking for someone to go the pub with!

March 16, 2007 at 2:41 am

The Blog Columnist » Will Twitter make us all go Twitty

[...] all people are quite enamored with Twitter - RIP Twitter (2007 - 2007). A 100+ comments speaks [...]

March 16, 2007 at 2:42 am

Billy Bob

Twitter going down? Not likely. Home entertainment systems are alive and well, and are not going down anytime soon. Hell, the Plasma and LCD markets are just getting started! Twitter will be around for a long time.

Morons.

March 16, 2007 at 3:56 am

oban89

I realized this morning before reading this that I hadn’t used twitter in a while, so I sent my most recent (and last) post -
“I’m bored with Twitter”

March 16, 2007 at 3:58 am

matbalez

oban: It would be fitting if everyone who stopped using Twitter made their last post say “I’m bored with Twitter.” Poetic.

We should start a campaign of some sorts…

March 16, 2007 at 3:59 am

matbalez

Billy Bob: Not sure what the link is you’re trying to draw between home entertainment systems and Twitter. Seems a little tenuous to me. Care to elaborate?

March 16, 2007 at 3:59 am

matbalez

red01: sadly you might be right. maybe it will succeed in spite of itself…

March 16, 2007 at 4:01 am

matbalez

bonaldi: The conclusion that community anchors are important to the Twitter network is based on the indirect evidence that its popularity skyrocketed (disproportionately) when a small number of people at SXSW started using it. By that I infer the opposite is just as likely when those people bail.

March 16, 2007 at 4:23 am

Bwana

You don’t get Twitter. You’ve made that perfectly clear. I fail to see how your misunderstanding of its appeal will lead to its demise. I also fail to see how your imposed limitations will hold it back. Twitter is fun and is useful for many reasons I will not list here. Once Twitter “groups” hits the ground, you’ll even see families signing up to give updates to a everyone via text. There’s that word I mentioned before: Text. Twitter uses text for everything it does and that is what makes it extensible. RSS support? Beautiful. API available? Yes. Mobile phone support? Check. What’s next? OpenID support? Integration into other apps? More creative mashups? This thing has momentum that you can’t plan for. I defend Twitter because I love text. Instead of widgets on my desktop, I use text. For outlines, text. It’s the lowest common denominator for digital communication, and as long as it exists, I can use it on anything.

When I say text will never die, I mean these simple forms of communication: IM, irc, usenet, sms, and even email, will be around long after we’re gone. While you may think Twitter will fizzle in its current form, I believe your perception of Twitter will be history and it will morph into something completely different. Funny, isn’t that how the Internet started? Hmm.

Here’s a beautiful blog post on what Twitter is.

By the way, Twitter was wildly popular way before SXSW. Maybe that’s when you first noticed it?

March 16, 2007 at 4:45 am

Nick S

Twitter is .plan files… pushed, on the web.

March 16, 2007 at 4:46 am

Twitter is it evil or can it be used for good at Michael Specht - discussions on HR and technology

[...] Bonus- As advertised, Twitter answers the question “What are you doing?” It means that you can stay in touch with others without being intrusive. Just follow their twitters. If Obvious were to add group messages then things will get even more interesting. There has even been posts about being a good Twit, and as the Slacker Manager says the tool is not for everyone, but everyone should give it a try. register, set up their phone and/or IM client. If you do give it a try here is a good beginners guide to Twitter. At the end of the day Twitter will only survive if users find a use for the service. At this stage I think it is a bit early to be calling its death. [...]

March 16, 2007 at 4:47 am

matbalez

Bwana: I’m quite aware of the reasons people find Twitter fun, I just don’t think they’re sustainable, nor do I believe they’re healthy for our society. To me, Twitter represents a strange cross between banality and invasiveness that I just *feel* is counter to the human spirit, which ultimately seeks to reward depth of thought and respects at least some measure of individuality. (Yes I think Twitter erodes our individuality by lowering the privacy curtain one notch too far. Under the bright lights of full exposure, we are not truly ourselves.)

Citing a list of features that Twitter supports does not argue for the technology’s worth. A feature set is not a value set. A technology can do everything under the sun, but if it’s hollow at its core it will necessarily crumble under its own weight.

Finally, your statement: [Twitter] will morph into something completely different. Funny, isn’t that how the Internet started? Hmm.” is rather hilarious. I’d like to state, for the record, that Twitter *is not* as big a deal as the GENESIS OF THE INTERNET ITSELF.

But I guess fighting hyperbole with hyperbole is certainly a feasible argumentative strategy… just not one that lends you very much credibility.

(And yes, I’ve been aware of Twitter since day one. I visit TechCrunch way too often

March 16, 2007 at 6:20 am

"links for 2007-03-16" by Bob Plankers, The Lone Sysadmin

[...] RIP Twitter (2007-2007) « web1979 Amen. A few months ago I mentioned that I see no point, no value in Twitter. Anybody that needs to know my status can check my IM status. [...]

March 16, 2007 at 6:51 am

Umesh

Twitter marries the two most happening things in Web 2.0. Blogs and social netwroking and that too from different platforms. Its also focused. The best thing of twitter is that they pitched it as a micro blog and not as a conversational/chat app. Many people use twitter for many reasons and that is again one of the best things, user figuring out the objective, its his/her creativity to figure out how to and for what. They use it for updating other what are they doing, some use it for fun, some use it out of curiosity, some use it to display their status on their blog, some use it to get news updates etc etc.

I think twitter is going to stay.

March 16, 2007 at 6:54 am

Umesh

More on Twitter. http://whitespace.umeshgopinath.com/2007/02/twitter.html

March 16, 2007 at 7:15 am

Hmmm

Change is always more difficult for some than others….Is this a John C Dvorak blog? Haha

The rotary phone was just fine…and they used to have a live operator to place even local calls….I was Andy Rooney-esque

Hey, twitter is what it is…I applaud innovation. It mashes up a few things such as IM, digg, and irc even perhaps and it “answers the question…What the H-E-double toothpicks are you doing?”.

Twit on with your bad self…

March 16, 2007 at 7:16 am

Hmmm

O, and check out http://mrobvious.wordpress.com for my observations of twitter and the latest things making us think or scream.

March 16, 2007 at 7:20 am

links for 2007-03-16

[...] RIP Twitter (2007-2007) « web1979 Predicting Twitter’s imminent death. I have to say, I kind of agree more than disagree. (tags: internet twitter web2.0 applications blog) [...]

March 16, 2007 at 7:22 am

People Over Process » Blog Archive » links for 2007-03-16

[...] RIP Twitter (2007-2007) « web1979 (tags: twitter predictions) [...]

March 16, 2007 at 8:22 am

eyalnow

Although I’m not using Twitter nor “following” anyone who Twits, I can certainly understand why many people use it and cherish it and will continue to.

It’s for the same reason that people blog about what they had for breakfast, and post photos of their pets, and for the same reason that others read and interact with them about it.

People like to express themselves, and to share these expressions, be it blurbs or snapshots, with others. And people also like to get a glimpse into other people’s lives, activities and whereabouts.
The explosion in the blogosphere is not due to professionals or companies who want to interact with their customers, but rather due to your neighbour who blogs about his stamp collection, and his teenage daughter who blogs at *her space* about her boring family.

Deep value is not the only criterion to judge a service or application. Tetris and minesweeper aren’t that “deep” either, but still very popular.

Busy professionals are just a small segment of potential customers. They are certainly not a representation of the average Myspace, YouTube or Flickr user.
In the same time, there are already professionals who *are* finding ways to harness commercial benefits or twitting.

My prediction: The hype will subside, but Twitter will not close.

March 16, 2007 at 8:47 am

Put Yourself to the Test: with Twitter, 24/7 (23/40) « !anaj ,em s’taht

[...] posts regarding twitter: RIP Twitter (2007-2007) (con) Could Advertising Pollute Twitter? (pro-ish) RIP Twitter - A Rebuttal [...]

March 16, 2007 at 9:21 am

mydigest

Keep on trucking. Success is not necessary. Only that somebody said what needed to be said. They will never be able to say that nobody saw what was wrong. You spoke up. You did what you could. It was enough. We can all feel properly guilty now, and stop this happy playing whilst our doom creeps up on us. You are absolutely right, I bet. Sadly, I cannot help. Seriously. I am not kidding. I don’t THINK I’m kidding. Hell! I wonder if I’m kidding? Damn consciousness! What a nuisance! Nice weather we’re having. Cy Quick at mydigest.wordpress.com

March 16, 2007 at 9:55 am

Cohere » Why Twitter Is Significant

[...] number of blog entries have criticized Twitter as being an over-hyped fad. The mistake in this reasoning is seeing Twitter [...]

March 16, 2007 at 10:37 am

Twitter Dead in 07? « News Coctail

[...] Dead in 07? Filed under: Uncategorized — recar @ 10:32 am Twitter Dead in 07? This guy gives 3 reasons why “Twitter will flame-out before the end of 2007, in one of the [...]

March 16, 2007 at 11:30 am

Rich Cheng

1. Where’s the Value?

My mobile phone provider charges me 10 pence per text message. I have a close group of ten friends. Frequently, I want to send them all a text message. To do so, costs me £1.

If, on the other hand, I send my SMS via twitter, it costs me 10 pence, saving me 90 pence.

Now, admittedly I’m not using Twitter as it’s advertised (to me, it’s simply an SMS mailing list), but still, that is real, actual cash I’m saving.

March 16

RIP Twitter (2007-2007)

This Blog Has Moved

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